News Daily Spot: Clinton sweeps the invisible primary against Republican US chaos

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Clinton sweeps the invisible primary against Republican US chaos

Hillary Clinton is the clear leader in the so-called "invisible primary" US, the period in which the presidential candidates conquer the support of public figures, against a Republican Party where the division is such that the support of elites lose value.

Since 1980, the approval of governors and legislators in the run up to the presidential election year has been a nearly foolproof who will be the candidate from each party indicator.

In that area, Clinton will take the colors rivals in both parties, with the support of 12 governors, 38 senators, 140 congressmen and three cabinet members Barack Obama. The last of these was the Labor Secretary Tom Perez, Thursday.

This is a level of support "unprecedented" for a Democratic candidate who is not seeking re-election, according to a study FiveThirtyEight, a website dedicated to data journalism.

Allan Lichtman, author of a prediction system has successful outcome of every presidential election for the last 30 years in the country, support for Clinton is not, however, a "final" indicator.

"The support in the primary process can be important because they give you money and you get organization, but are not necessarily decisive," he told Efe Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington.

"In 2008 (Clinton) he did not have many supporters, but at the beginning of the primary she was clearly the favorite of the party apparatus and, nevertheless, Obama defeated," he recalled.

Until the rise of the primary system in the 1960s, the party elites have enormous control over the nomination process of candidates. The period of the "invisible primary" where its support can make a difference before the polls opened, has allowed them to retain some of that power of decision.

The cycle works like this: those supports "generate attention in the media and figures of the candidate in the polls tend to rise," said Lynn Vavreck, a professor of politics at the University of California, Los Angeles.

That rise in the polls, "in turn, generates more positive media coverage, triggering more donations and public support," Vavreck wrote in an article in The New York Times.

However, if other than the candidate chosen by the elites shows "a lot of strength in the primaries" in the early stages, "the party apparatus can change your support, because he likes the winners," said Lichtman.

Therefore, if the main rival of Clinton in the Democratic primaries, Bernie Sanders, who now has the support of two congressmen, won key primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, some public figures could rethink its support, he added.

But Clinton is also gaining support from many trade union leaders, which "hurts Sanders" because "the unions remain the most important element of the Democratic Party organized," said Lichtman.

The picture is completely different in the Republican Party, which is "deeply divided, making public support are much less valuable," noted the expert.

"There is a huge anti-party elites from the people who vote in the primary stream", which downplays public support, he said.

Is the leader in backup, for months, Jeb Bush, thirty senators and congressmen on their side; followed by Marco Rubio, winning him in the polls; and Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee, well behind in the polls.

"The early lead that Bush won in terms of support of the party apparatus has not resulted so far in anything close to a successful presidential campaign," said Lichtman.

"Right now, Bush looks like a loser" in the polls, he added, he can do that, if that trend continues once they start primary, props are directed to another candidate.

Applicants who present themselves as outside the party machine, like Donald Trump or Ben Carson, "can accomplish many props" but also be "up and down very fast" in the polls, Lichtman recalled.

The teacher sees three candidates "viable" in the Republican Party right now: Trump and Ted Cruz Rubio, and they somehow appeal to a base of the party that has turned right and are tired of the old recipes of Washington.

But while Clinton is "the closest you can be to an inevitable candidate," there is no such candidate on the Republican side, and the conquest of the biggest names in the game does not seem to be the solution to that problem. EFE

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