The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday launched a bucket of cold water on hopes of a short-term rise in oil prices, confirming the huge supply of crude and weak demand.
Indeed, the IEA warned that the current excess production and weak demand will prevent the recovery of oil prices, now at a historically low level.
"In these conditions the risk of falling (prices) in the short term has increased," the IEA said in its monthly report for February, which also provides for a likely increase in reserves.
The IEA energy --organismo OECD, representing countries consumidores-- dismantled one by one the factors of optimism that allowed crude oil prices to recover slightly in recent days, returning to above $ 30 a barrel, after falling to $ 27 in January, its lowest level in 13 years.
The Paris-based agency says that it is better not to have a concerted decline in supply from producers, whether or not members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise prices again.
"Continued speculation about an agreement between OPEC and major non-OPEC producers to cut production is just that, speculation," says the IEA.
"The probability of a concerted reduction is very low," he adds.
Conversely, the OPEC production will remain important this year. Led by Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the cartel produced 32.63 million barrels per day (mbd) in January, up 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month and 1.7 mbd over the same period last year.
However, the overall world production has fallen by 200,000 bpd last month, to 96.5 mbd, affected by lower production outside OPEC. In 2016, non-OPEC production should be reduced by 600,000 bpd to 57.1 million bpd, according to the IEA predicts.
Nevertheless, the IEA considers it premature to bet on a drop in oil prices by a decline in US production of shale gas, because it is possible that this "continue resisting" the IEA predicts.
Moreover, as will be maintained oversupply, growing global demand for black gold will lose vigor. According to the IEA, consumption will rise 1.2 million bpd this year to 95.6 mbd, a much smaller increase than the 1.6 mbd recorded in 2015.