The growing tensions within OPEC, which hinder a cut in production in the short term, and turbulence in the Chinese economy, which has triggered fears about the future demand, have worsened an indentation in oil prices which analysts do not yet see an end.
The diplomatic clash between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the main Sunni and Shiite powers in the Middle East, respectively, and two of the largest producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) this week triggered a new collapse in prices, which accelerated chaos in Chinese stocks, for which negotiations were suspended twice.
The combination of these two factors has produced oil at levels not seen since mid-2004, with a fall of nearly 11% between Monday and Friday, which exacerbates the collapse of about 70% that accumulates in a year half.
The execution of a Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia, which has rekindled the conflict in the Middle East coincides with Tehran plans to export oil again when sanctions over its nuclear program, in the coming months are lifted.
Much million barrels per day is expected that Iran end adding to the global offering will be directed to Asia, dominated until recently by Saudi Arabia market, but in which producers like Iraq, Russia and now expected Iran start gain ground.
With a new competitor within OPEC, and a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy, which threatens to shrink demand, Saudi Arabia hardly accept a reduction in the production ceiling, which would increase prices but would jeopardize its share market.
On the contrary, some analysts believe that Riyadh could even use oil supply as a weapon against Tehran and re-extend its pumping low prices detract attractive to Iranian oil fields to foreign oil.
"Neither side will want to give," he said Efe Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC Markets, adding that "at this time there is no appetite to cut production," and anticipating that prices would continue falling short term to near $ 25 a barrel.
Only if tensions between the two countries derive an unlikely military conflict analysts see potential for this clash push prices upward.
"If the conflict were to physically stop the production, that could lead to a rise in prices. However, at this time there is a huge oversupply in the market, so the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran would have to be more serious than in the past to come to influence that way, "he told Efe David Elmes, head of the Network of Global Energy Research at Britain's University of Warwick.
Beyond this hypothetical scenario, the return of Iran to contribute to short-term markets to keep prices down, but ultimately serve to divide the market outside the OPEC producers whose production is too costly in the current situation, by which, paradoxically, both Riyadh and Tehran stand to gain.
The pulse that has so far kept OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia and opposed by their more modest members like Venezuela, Ecuador, Nigeria, has served to cause difficulties for the nascent American shale industry, which threatened to overshadow traditional oil cartels.
The rise of "fracking" (hydro-fracturing) and other non-traditional extraction techniques has given entry in the last decade many companies of modest size to the oil market, mainly in the United States.
These enterprises, supported largely by loans signed when prices were high, now undergo deep trouble, while big oil, even without much difficulty, have been forced to drastically reduce their investment.
That scenario will lead eventually reducing the overall supply without the need for OPEC to budge and reduce its pumping, which would begin to boost prices that, in any case, may take years to recover, experts say .