The punishment at the polls on economic legislature of the PP and the headlines in international newspapers such as the Financial Times, warning of the "ungovernability" of Spain has made the easy holder reporters salmon 21D is the punishment of the Stock Exchange election result on Sunday. However, if we look back, the market has not rewarded any election day since he was born the Ibex in 1992.
Even the victory of Mariano Rajoy in November 2011 according to the wishes of investors was received in Madrid with increases floors. By contrast, in the electoral hangover Ibex left about 3.5% 21N.
The bag you have never liked the elections. Fear often leads to political change sales in the months before the elections. Uncertainty is the last thing investors want. And adjust positions after the results does not seem easy in view of what happened in '93, when the PSOE victory was met with a fall of 1.7%, 96 (won Aznar and the Dow lost more than 5%), 2000 (the PP won an absolute majority, but the Dow 1.2% the next day left), 2004 (11 M caused an unexpected electoral turnaround and Zapatero's victory led to a decline of 4.1%) 2008 (PSOE continuity was greeted with a loss of 0.28%) and 2011 (the arrival of Rajoy did not prevent the Ibex lost the day 3.47%).
There is no doubt that the complicated political map that has drawn the polls this Sunday will be very taken into account by investors in their future purchasing decisions. However, it is early to say that instability or weak government is coming will cause a strong punishment of the markets.
Even less if you consider that Spain will continue under the umbrella of the stimuli of the ECB and the lesson of the Greek challenge has been internalized by all leaders, even by Podemos.
The fact that the budget for next year already approved also offer some visibility among the political shadows. Even the fact that Brussels has requested an additional cut of 10,000 million euros to scare investors. By now everyone knows that the Spanish economic policy is dictated in Berlin govern who governs in the countries of southern Europe.