News Daily Spot: International context: Big oil are that lower prices will persist for several more months

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International context: Big oil are that lower prices will persist for several more months

Stress tests to European banks conducted every two years since 2016.- - regulators expect European banks stress tests to large entities are conducted every two years since 2016, said the executive director of the Banking Authority European, Adam Farkas. In the exercise next year, which begins in February and ends in July, will also be discussed first exposure to currency risk by unfavorable movements in foreign exchange markets, Farkas told a news conference on Tuesday. The tests, also known by its English name, "stress tests" began to perform in order to identify weaknesses in the banking system following the financial crisis that began in 2008.

Expectations of Fed rate hike in December claim by solid US employment data. - A robust employment report in the US released last week strengthened the belief of economists who expect an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December, said Tuesday a Reuters poll. The survey of 80 economists showed a 70 percent chance that the central bank raise the target range for the federal funds rate at its last meeting of the year, scheduled for next month. The query result implies an increase from 55 percent chance seen in the Reuters poll of October, when the volatility of emerging markets and a cooling labor market reduced expectations for a rate hike at the Fed short term. "The economic risk of raising rates too soon even exceeds the risk of deciding too late. However, Fed officials seem to believe that now is the time to do it and recent data support that action to December, "said Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise Financial. Fed officials, led by its president Janet Yellen, have suggested that they favor an increase in interest rates in December from its October meeting. Reuters polls have consistently predicted that the decision will be made in December, after the central bank opted to keep the target range in September. After questioning the tightening of monetary policy in the United States this year, financial markets have changed their estimates and now see a 68 percent chance of a rate hike next month, roughly in line with the result thrown in Reuters poll. The prospects of a change in the monetary policy of the Fed's strengthened on Friday when the US Labor Department reported the creation of 271,000 non-farm jobs last month, the biggest increase in nearly a year, a reading that was well above estimates of economists. The report also said the unemployment rate gave a minimum of 7 and a half years of 5 percent, a level that many Fed officials are consistent with full employment, which adds momentum that is taking increasing wages.

Macri gradually release foreign exchange for payment of debts and accumulated dividends of Argentine companies. - The opposition candidate leading the polls for the presidential ballot of Argentina eliminated in his first day in office exchange restrictions currently applied by the country, but remain limited orders dollars to pay off accumulated debts under the current regime. Argentina in late 2011 limited the purchase of dollars for savings and established a complicated approval process for imports in order to slow the outflow of foreign exchange, which causes severe obstacles for the industry and hinders the remittance of dividends abroad. Mauricio Macri, the favorite of the markets for the November 22 runoff vote, said that seeks to disarm exchange controls and capital of the country after more than a decade of interventionist policies, but his team believes it will be impossible to release one stroke all limits. "The stocks are a lot of things, not one. One of the things is the possibility, for example, to draw foreign currency abroad, otherwise payment to importers. All that is (what will be) free, it works for that, "he told reporters Marcos Peña, Macri's campaign manager. Peña said that, if elected, Macri lift all limits from December 10, the day he takes office, but must study how will face backlogs before, including debts importers and dividends are not transferred abroad. "In the past, we must look. When we get it we will see times that, "he said. Macri plans to dismantle the network of controls over the stagnant economy have lured local and foreign investors, but they have also become a weakness that the ruling independent attacks to try to win votes ahead of a runoff would be fought. "We will try to solve the flow from the first day and see how we handle these issues of stock," Macri said in a press conference with foreign journalists. His critics fear that an abrupt opening of the foreign exchange market could trigger a sharp devaluation and capital flight that could hit the country at a time when international reserves, which the government used to pay debt and control the value of the dollar are in very low levels. "The question to answer is that nobody knows how many are reserves. Papers are many, much less reserves, "Macri said.

Spain, the new focus of investment China.-Spain has become one of the main targets of Chinese investment groups in Europe. This follows the report by ESADE Business & Law School, in collaboration with KPMG and Cuatrecasas, Gonçalves Pereira, and has been featured in the Icex. In the past two years, Chinese investments in Spain have grown exponentially. Of the 1.662 million euros invested by China in Spain in the period from 2000 to 2014, 93.8% occurred in recent years. Of that amount, 610 million euros correspond to 2014, 49% more than in 2013. Investment figures this year again accounted leap into large transactions recorded in recent months in the real estate, hotel, and energy sectors agribusiness, featuring groups like China Construction Bank, Dalian Wanda, Fosun, Bright Food and HNA. Spain is gaining positions in a ranking so that continues to be led by Britain. This country has received 46.7% of Chinese funds for China to Europe between 2012 and 2014. It is followed by Italy with 21%. In total, according to the European study it has received during that period 58,300 million.

Germany will grow 1.7% this year and 1.6% in 2016, according to the advisory board Government.- The German economy will grow by 1.7% this year and 1.6% next, in a political context economic marked by the refugee crisis, reported the Advisory Board of Economists of the German Government. The so-called "five wise men" spread its annual report today macroeconomic forecasts with particular emphasis on the consequences of the massive influx of immigrants to Germany and stabilization of the eurozone. "The good economic trends continue in the coming year. But due to migration of refugees has made it even more important to improve the preparation for the future of the German economy through framework conditions ", he said in a statement Christoph Schmidt, president of the council. According to their estimates, the employed population close this year slightly above 43 million, a record, and next, in 43.3 million. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, will also rise slightly next year if this year and will end at 6.4% in 2016 will stand at 6.6%. The report explains that the influx of refugees to the country is the key element that explains this behavior in the labor market and advance its consequences to "medium term", but are difficult to predict in detail by uncertainties about their evolution, will be in any case "moderate". Thus, it estimates that the influx of refugees can have a "positive effect" on the working population and are used to make between 250,000 and 500,000 refugees until 2020. However, unemployment also advance for this reason and for 2020 the "five wise men" They estimate that between 300,000 and 350,000 refugees will be registered as unemployed. The evolution of prices dynamics in the coming though still far from the 2% pursued by the European Central Bank (ECB) year, because after 0.3% this year, the advisory board expects inflation to grow by 1 2% in 2016. The German government will maintain its surplus, although equivalent to 0.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year will go down by 0.2%. The document estimates that the aggregate expenditure of public administrations by the German refugee crisis will involve between 5,900 and 8,300 million euros this year and between 9,000 and 14,300 million in 2016, a "bearable" figures given "good standing of finance public "the German state.

Colombian bank Davivienda placed bonds for 205.4 mln dlrs after demand by almost double. - Colombian bank Davivienda on Tuesday placed ordinary bonds in the local market for 600,000 million pesos (205.4 million dollars), after receiving claims nearly doubled, reported the local stock exchange. Davivienda, the country's third largest bank, handed a two-year bonds at an equivalent performance within the Banking Benchmark (IBR) plus 2.05 percent to 5 years the Consumer Price Index (CPI) 3.45 percent over 10 years the CPI plus 4.5 percent.

Dollar reaches up to seven months, rebounded against the euro. - The dollar hit new highs Tuesday seven months, driven by the expansion in spreads rates on US Treasury bonds on expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. * The dollar index reached its highest level since April to climb 99.504, surpassing Friday's highs after the jobs report US. At 1605 GMT was up 0.37 percent to 99.341. * On Friday, the dollar had appreciated sharply after an increase of 271,000 jobs in non-farm payrolls last month, far above the 180,000 expected by experts surveyed by Reuters. * Other currencies pared some of the gains Monday, but the dollar regained its momentum. The dollar appreciated 0.6 percent against the euro to 1.0679 euros per unit, reaching its highest level against the euro since April 24. * The euro has depreciated nearly 3 percent in the first 10 days of November. * "I think this is the divergence of monetary policies of central banks having an effect on the euro-dollar relationship," said Sireen Haraji, currency strategist at Mizuho Corporate Bank. * For Haraji, markets are pricing in a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, and there is a growing expectation that the ECB will do anything in its meeting next month. * The euro suffered extra pressure on Monday after four members of the Governing Council of the ECB said the idea in December further cut deposit rates for banks is gaining support. * Rumors of a cut in the ECB deposit rate from the current 0.2 percent caused a decline in bond yields in the euro zone on Tuesday. * In contrast to the ECB, it is considered likely that the Fed will raise rates in December, after the good jobs data last Friday. * Against the yen, the dollar rose to 123.37 yen, near the maximum of two and a half months to 123.60 yen touched the previous session.

US import prices fall in oil and other bienes.- Prices of US imports fell more than expected in October to reduce the cost of oil and other goods, a sign that the dollar's strength and weakness global demand continues to put downward pressure on imported inflation. The Labor Department said Tuesday that import prices fell 0.5 percent last month after a revised 0.6 percent decline in September. The import prices have now fallen in 14 of the last 16 months. Economists in a Reuters poll projected that import prices would fall 0.1 percent after a previously reported decline of 0.1 percent in September. In the 12 months to October, import prices plummeted 10.5 percent. The report also showed that export prices fell 0.2 percent after falling 0.6 percent in September, and were down 6.7 percent on-year.

ECB relax policy further in December with more stimulus. - The European Central Bank will almost certainly further relax its monetary policy next month, according to economists polled by Reuters believe that at least for now, an extension or expansion of bond purchases would be the most likely option. ECB President Mario Draghi said last month that the Governing Council would act whenever necessary to ensure that inflation, currently approaching zero, grows to its target of about 2 percent in two years. Reuters reported exclusively on Monday that he was forming a consensus on the central bank to further reduce the rate of deposits to weaken the euro and boost inflation. Even Germany, which was initially opposed to non-conventional stimuli (known as QE), has so far offered no resistance. The message Draghi has raised the stakes for further stimulus and economists polled this week give an average 75 percent probability that the ECB acts in its meeting on 3 December. The probability is remarkably stable with respect to a survey before the October meeting, given that the euro has weakened by 5 percent since then on expectations that the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December. The ECB has made purchases from March half a billion euros, most sovereign debt, hoping that the stimulus kept low profitability of public debt and weaken the exchange rate, with the medium-term goal of raising the inflation. The main opinion among economists is that the ECB will expand or extend its program of purchases in December, but for the moment leave unchanged the type of deposits -0.20 percent. If the ECB raises its shopping, economists expect will increase the size to 75,000 million euros per month from 60,000 million now. If you decide to extend the maturity of purchases from September 2016, probably will until June 2017.

Petrobras and Brazilian unions fail to reach an agreement to strike down. - Petrobras and its unions failed to reach an agreement Monday on the demands of workers for the Brazilian state oil reversed some budget cuts and asset sales canceled, union and company officials said. The strike of a week as most in 20 years, now runs the risk of reaching a stalemate that could affect local supplies of fuel and further weaken a company already under financial pressure and still grappling with the consequences of a scandal corruption. "Our demands are not wages, but in defense of national sovereignty and for the company to again be the impetus for the development of the country," he said Monday night as oil workers confederation of the country, the FUP. Combined with a truckers' strike, paralyzing Petrobras could further damage the Brazilian economy, already struggling with its worst recession in decades. The two sides are scheduled to meet again on Tuesday. A Petrobras official with direct knowledge of the negotiations told Reuters on Monday that the company expects an agreement by the end of the week. "There is still no agreement, but unions better understand the economic situation of the company," the official, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. While the FUP is asking for a wage increase of 18 percent, more than twice the rate of inflation in the country, union leaders say their demands to reverse some 100,000 million dollars in budget cuts and halt plans to sell oil fields and a stake in its unit distribution are more important. No sales and budget cuts Petrobras will have trouble paying its debt of more than 130,000 million dollars, the largest in the oil industry, the company says.

Big Oil see that lower prices will persist for several more months. - Excess supply of oil in the world could take longer than expected to be passed and put pressure on prices for over months, if not years, despite cuts in investment and project cancellations, said Tuesday executives of major companies in the sector. The view of Exxon Mobil, BP and Total was released at an industry conference in Abu Dhabi; but at the same event OPEC officials estimated that prices will improve in 2016. These conflicting visions occur when most oil companies are cutting their budgets and investments to generate cash flows amid prices are currently below $ 50. "I'm not sure that we will leave low prices for several months," the chief executive of Total, Patrick Pouyanne told the conference. Oil prices have fallen more than half in the last 18 months, because of an excess world supply that resulted from the rise of shale in the United States and the OPEC decision not to cut production to care its share of the market for higher-cost producers. The heads of exploration and production at BP and Exxon, Lamar McKay and Jack Williams, respectively, said prices would remain low for a while, while the head of BP Middle East, Michael Townshend, predicted that oil will fluctuate around $ 60 in the next three years. The views are more pessimistic than those of the secretary general of OPEC, Abdullah al-Badri, who said Tuesday he sees positive momentum for oil markets in 2016. The oversupply persists despite the big oil have reduced their capital investments for a combined total of 22,000 million dollars this year, while suspended about 80 projects, double the left in 2014, according to McKay.

Prices of US Treasury bonds falling long-term debt auction before 10 years.- Prices of Treasury long-term in the United States fell on Tuesday and yields on the benchmark operating close to maximum debt over three months because investors sold notes before an auction of 24,000 million dollars in 10-year bonds. * Most corporate bond offering exerting downward pressure on prices, which have already been falling amid growing expectations the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade at its meeting on 15 and December 16. * Notes 10-year Treasury fell 2/32 in price for a yield of 2.349 percent, up 1 basis point compared to Monday. That day, the returns reached 2,377 percent, an intraday since July 21, according to Reuters. * The sale of Treasury bonds to 10 years at 1800 GMT will take place following a weak auction of $ 24,000 in three-year notes on Monday. * The Treasury completed the refinancing auction of 16,000 million dollars in 30-year bonds on Thursday. * The US debt market closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day.

EIA estimates biggest drop in US oil production in 2016. - The US oil production will fall more than expected next year, after a surprisingly strong performance in 2015, while demand will be slightly weaker than estimated makes month, he said Tuesday the Information Administration Energía.En its short-term energy forecast, the EIA revised down its estimate of production for 2016 to 8,770,000 barrels per day (bpd), down 90,000 bpd compared with last month's projection. As a result, it provides that production will fall 520,000 bpd, instead of 390,000 bpd. The EIA also increased its growth estimate for this year to 580,000 bpd from 540,000 bpd up in October. Meanwhile, the company cut its expectations for expansion of US oil demand for next year to 120,000 bpd from 150,000 bpd. The EIA unchanged growth of domestic demand for 2015 by 320,000 bpd.

Executive senior bank Bradesco dies in plane crash in Brazil: Fuentes.- Marco Antonio Rossi, senior executive in the insurance arm of Banco Bradesco SA, died Tuesday in a plane crash in central Brazil, they said Reuters two sources with knowledge of the matter. Rossi, 54, was traveling aboard a Cessna Citation VII jet was heading from Brasilia to Sao Paulo when it crashed, according to the sources, who were not allowed to discuss the matter publicly. The plane belonged to Banco Bradesco they added. There were four people aboard the plane, said the Brazilian Air Force, when it disappeared from radar at 19.04 local time (2104 GMT) near the border between the states of Goias and Minas Gerais. The civil aviation authority of Brazil said that two of the occupants of the plane were its pilots. Rossi was seen as the most likely successor of Luiz Carlos Trabuco, CEO of Banco Bradesco. Trabuco Rossi replaced as head of Bradesco Seguros, when the first was appointed in 2009 to lead the private sector second largest lender Brazil. Trabuco, 64, is expected to pass into retirement next year. The newspaper O Globo reported on its website that firefighters in the scene said there were no survivors.

Microsoft will provide its international clients save their information in European data centers in Europe has become a safe harbor through the judgment of the Court of Justice of the EU to invalidate the data transfer between the EU and US. Microsoft has decided to offer their foreign customers the ability to transfer information to Europe in what would be the biggest response from one company to the US spy scandals. On Wednesday, the US software company announced it was installing new data centers in Germany that will be under the control of Deutsche Telekom, the German telecommunications company, according to Financial Times published today. "These new data centers will enable customers to use the full potential of the cloud of Microsoft in Germany and ensure that a German company retains control of the data," said Satya Nadell, chief executive of Microsoft, in a press conference in Berlin. Technology analysts have described this operation as a "turning point" because it is the first time a US technology giant leaves evidence of the inability to keep user data safe in America. In fact, the decision to Micososft can have a domino effect on other companies in the sector, as Amazon, Google or Oracle. The Court of Justice of the European Union invalidated the agreement for the transfer of data between the EU and the US, arguing that the United States does not guarantee the privacy of user data. While some companies hailed the decision as a step to safeguard privacy, moreover it mentions that this decision will increase costs and could jeopardize the free flow of information online.

BBVA provides its customers multiply by five mobile payment .-The group already has a million customers of the BBVA Wallet and expected to reach 5 million by the end of 2016. BBVA has achieved a million downloads of its BBVA Wallet, your solution payments using mobile. The group has 850,000 downloads of its solution in Spain and the rest in Mexico, Chile and the US. The bank expects to reach 5 million downloads worldwide by the end of 2016, as the pace of adoption has been greatly accelerated. According to Fernando de la Rica, director of BBVA means of payment in the third quarter there have been 358,000 downloads of BBVA Wallet compared to 87,000 in the same period of 2014. Therefore the group expects the number of customers by the end of 2016 reaches 5 million downloads of the application. In addition, Wallet users change their consumption: spend more than plastic cards operations and make it lower unit value. De la Rica said the average customer purchases Wallet is 22% higher than the normal cards with 11 purchases per month, while the average expenditure of 435 euros, is 18% higher than the 369 euros of traditional cards. (immediately)

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