The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today downgraded from 1.6% to 1.4% its forecast for 2017 economic growth in the euro area as a result of "negative impact" of the vote in favor of the UK departure of the Union European (EU), known as "brexit".
This new estimate revised down two tenths predicted in April and warned that if the current "risk aversion continues (...) the impact on growth could be higher" on the economy of the euro zone.
For 2018, growth is expected to be 1.6% below the 1.7% forecast three months ago.
Full report on its review of the economy of the single currency, the Fund stressed that "the expected growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro zone is expected to decelerate from 1.6% this year to 1.4 % in 2017, mainly due to negative impact on the outcome of the referendum in the UK ".
The organization led by Christine Lagarde, who had warned before the negative effects of a possible departure from the UK of the European bloc, justified this cut by "a likely major weakness of investor confidence due to higher uncertainty, higher financial volatility and lower demand for British imports.
"This is a preliminary analysis, at this time is very difficult to say how long this period will last," said Mahmood Pradhan today, Deputy Director of the European Department of the IMF in a conference call with reporters.
"The uncertainty will persist while not clarify what the status of the new relationship between the UK and the EU," said Pradhan.
In recent days, the international organization has stressed the need for "a smooth and predictable transition" in the words of Lagarde, but even the details of the process of British withdrawal from the EU are unknown.