The International Energy Agency (IEA) finds that the oil market is rebalancing, with demand rising more than expected for the low price and an offer that has suffered some also unexpected cuts, but in any case do not see overtones of sharp rises in oil prices.
In its monthly report published today, the IEA revised upwards their expectations for global demand for this year, which predicts an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day to 96.07 million, which means about 100,000 barrels a day more what it is anticipated in May.
This review concentrates essentially in the first quarter of 2016, with a rise of 1.6 million barrels per day when initially that progression should be limited to 1.2 million and it is attributed to low oil prices.
It is true that India remains the main vector of rising demand, but the agency stressed that it has also seen a change in the United States, where after six months of stagnant consumption, from February consumption, particularly gasoline increases.
For the full year, the increase in the US should be 255,000 barrels per day, 2.8%.
The IEA presents its first forecast in the monthly survey for 2017, when it expects increased demand stays the same pace as in 2016, ie 1.3 million barrels per day.
A second element of rebalancing are the cuts that occurred in May, which decreased the total volume of oil put on the market by 800,000 barrels a day, mainly for two elements that could not be foreseen.
The first fires were in Canada, at the peak represented a decrease of 1.5 million barrels per day of production capacity.
The second was Nigeria, where there was a drop of 250,000 barrels per day by sabotage to settle at 1.37 million, which is the lowest level for this African country in the last three decades.
In both cases it could happen that of Venezuela, as the authors of the report said they feared that the deteriorating situation there could affect the oil industry.
In addition, low prices have led to an abandonment of shale deposits in the United States, where that production this year should fall by 500,000 barrels per day.
The IEA stressed that the rebalancing currently displayed is partly due to two producer countries in Africa, Nigeria and Libya are extracting volumes clearly below its potential.
Implying that Nigeria and Libya could increase their quotas, and at the same time the strong demand that is being perceived in the current context of low prices, not necessarily last if the circumstances change.
The agency concludes that there is a huge excess capacity, close to a million barrels a day, and that is likely to "cool the projections of a significant increase in oil prices."