Bolivian President Evo Morales on Tuesday diluted saw the possibility of re-election, as the not consolidated in the scrutiny of the referendum, a result that could force him to give a change of direction to his government.
Despite the tendency of the vote, the Bolivian president, who governed from 2006 settled in supporting an important social base of indigenous and popular sectors, still harbors hopes of a win. "We are optimistic," he told reporters.
However, according to the Electoral Body Plurinational (EPO), with 71% of the official canvass of votes in the referendum on Sunday, not a constitutional reform to allow a further period obtained a 54.86% vs. 45.84% the Self.
Another parallel count, made for internal purposes by the EPO and consisting of photographic shipping records, accounts for a count of 83.3%, which will forward the No to 53.8% compared to 46, 2% Yes. This does not replace the official count.
According to independent analyst Andres Torres, the result, no matter how tightly the triumph Yes, "leaves vulnerable to attacks from the opposition, which will seek its management (ending in 2020) does not end in the best terms, Morales for I can not go back "past a constitutional period, ie in 2025.
Political analyst Jorge Lazarte, exvocal the Electoral Tribunal considers that the result confirms that "a part of the country (..) said enough," forcing him to agree policies hereafter.
If the trend of the vote is confirmed, it would be the first direct election defeat Morales in his 10 years in power, but in 2015 his party lost key seats in the municipal elections.
This scenario could also be replicated in his party, Al Socialismo (MAS), where "infighting which could jeopardize its future" are emerging, according to Torres.
"Morales could make a tremendous struggle" for his succession, which "could weaken the party and implode with serious problems with MAS and the four years of government that are still missing," Torres said.
- Corruption vs economy -In recent weeks the situation was complicated for indigenous president of 56 years, affected by a scandal of alleged influence peddling on behalf of the Chinese company CAMC, in which his former partner Gabriela Zapata works as a business manager.
The firm managed public contracts for about $ 560 million in Bolivia and the case is being investigated by Congress. Morales rejected the accusations.
The image Morales has begun to fray gradually since last year, and punctuated by a scandal involving dozens of peasant leaders, some close to him, investigated for fraud $ 2.5 million to a development fund.
According to the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, is "unlikely" that an eventual defeat of Morales cause "immediately a radicalization of positions in the country."
"From both political and economic terms it is likely to be the path of Bolivia stability in the short term (..) Nor sees Bolivia affected by economic crisis."
This is due largely to Morales drove growth in his country after nationalizing the hydrocarbons in May 2006, previously held a dozen foreign companies, and thus managed to significantly swell the revenue for the treasury.
Morales had already hinted to Spanish newspaper El Pais that his hold on power could come to an end. When asked if they feel a strong disappointment in case of a defeat, he replied: "I'm not prepared. With such a record, I'm happy and content to my Chaco. I love to be a sports official. "
Henceforth, analysts say Morales - the longest-ruling power in Bolivia should focus on government, pending its current mandate in 2020. AFP