The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that oil prices may drop further by the oversupply, exacerbated by the extra Iranian crude and a slowing of the increase in demand from major consumers.
In its monthly report on the oil market published today, it estimates that the gap between supply and demand will be 1.5 million barrels in the first half of 2016, in a scenario in which Iran increase its production by 600,000 bpd in June.
While acknowledging the "significant uncertainties" over Iran's ability to put on the market immediately more like 500,000 bpd announced Tehran and finding customers (in December had brought 2.91 million barrels), the authors of report estimate that by the end of the first quarter the market could be 300,000 barrels more.
Therefore echoed warnings investment banks that the price per barrel, which in mid-January had marked minimum in 12 years under the bar for $ 30 are made, could sink further, to the point that any of them he has come to talk about $ 10.
On the demand side, the IEA has revised downwards its forecast for 2016 to the realization that the start of the winter season in December was particularly soft in Europe, Japan and the US and, above all, to a worse economic developments than expected in key emerging markets such as China, Brazil and Russia.
One of the key factors is the behavior of China, whose economy is experiencing a pronounced slowdown is reflected in oil consumption, which stood at 11.1 million barrels a day in November, the latest monthly data available.
The rate of increase of this consumption was 700,000 bpd on-year in the first half of 2015, from 800,000 barrels in the third quarter, but only 200,000 in the fourth.
For 2016, the IEA experts believe that China will increase by 300,000 barrels a day more than last year's average.