Source: TheGuardian
Cabinet ministers have warned in the aftermath of the first RAF Tornado bombing raids in Syria that it may take as long as two years to destroy Islamic State, saying it will require patience and persistence.
A military breakthrough may first require diplomatic agreement on the formation of a new transitional government capable of uniting warring forces to drive Isis from northern Syria, government sources added.
“We are going to need to be patient and persistent. This is going to take time. It is complex, it is difficult what we are asking our pilots to do, and our thoughts should be with them and their families,” David Cameron said.
Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, said the air campaign, due to be supported by reconstituted Syrian troops, could last years. “The American estimate of the campaign in Iraq, which began last year, was that it would last at least three years and we’re not halfway through that yet.”
Four Tornado jets carrying Paveway guided bombs took off from the RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus shortly after Wednesday’s late-night vote in the Commons to carry out attacks in Syria in the early hours of the morning. Fallon said he had “approved yesterday a series of targets in the [al-Omar] oil field – wellheads from which the oil production is derived which helps to finance Daesh [Isis]”.
Ministers, relieved by the diplomatic leverage given to Britain by the large Commons vote, admit the key domestic political risk is that the RAF becomes committed to a long bombing campaign in Iraq and Syria without a parallel diplomatic process that would create a viable ground force in Syria.
Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, is due to attend a series of talks this month that will determine if the countries shaken by recent Isis attacks can bury their differences over Syria and bring an end to the four-year civil war.
But in a sign of the diplomatic hurdles ahead, Vladimir Putin, the key sponsor of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, accused Washington and its allies of turning Iraq, Syria and Libya into a “zone of chaos and anarchy threatening the entire world” by supporting regime change in those countries.
Speaking in his state of the nation address, the Russian president – whose country has been bombing in Syria since late September – called for an end to what he called double standards that hampered unified global efforts to fight terrorism. He welcomed the UK’s involvement in airstrikes, but called for “one powerful fist” to defeat terrorism and accused the Turkish government of being the main consumer of Isis oil.
Putin’s accusations, angrily rejected by the Turks as slander and handed to the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, by the Russian ambassador to London, are embarrassing for the British government after the first raids were directed specifically at Isis oil wellheads in eastern Syria.
The Foreign Office also hopes to press ahead with an ambitious timetable to win agreement this month for the launch of UN-sponsored talks to end the civil war.
It cited a letter from the US secretary of state, John Kerry, stating “the Russian leadership have both publicly and privately stated on numerous occasions said that they are open to a political transition in Syria, including a new constitution and elections”.
Russia and Iran have been the two countries most determined to keep President Assad in power.
But government sources admit they have taken a risk in joining military strikes predominantly against Isis infrastructure and oil supplies at such a pivotal diplomatic moment. “If the talks fail we may be badly exposed,” admitted one ministerial source. Such a failure is also likely to embolden Corbyn as he seeks to assert his authority over his divided party.
Political talks on a transition can only start after various agreements have been reached. The first, due to be thrashed out over three days in Riyadh next week, is on the composition of opposition groups to be invited to talks with the Syrian government. The second is when the format of such talks between the government and opposition groups are agreed at a UN-sponsored meeting likely to take place in New York in the week of 14 December.
Hammond is due to attend the talks in New York and Britain is now heavily invested in their success.
In the Commons late on Wednesday, Hammond stressed the lengthy timetable, saying: “The time for retaking Isil’s [Isis’] heartland in Syria will be when the civil war is ended, a transitional government are in place, and the world can then once again support the Syrian government so that the Syrian army, the Syrian opposition forces and the Kurdish forces can turn their guns on [Isis], liberating their own country from this evil organisation, supported by the coalition with weapons, with training, with technical support, and with air power.”
Many diplomats have argued Britain has to accept that Assad can be a player in the talks process, so long as it is understood he and his immediate entourage leave at the end of an 18-month transition.
Recriminations inside the Labour party continued as MPs who backed air strikes accused Corbyn of licensing a campaign of intimidation against them. Corbynissued two appeals for the abuse to stop and a code of conduct is being drawn up by the party leadership.